Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide | 
 enlarge | Author: David Vose
Publisher: Wiley
Category: Book
List Price: $160.00
Buy New: $121.60
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Avg. Customer Rating:  12 reviews
Sales Rank: 88261
Media: Hardcover
Edition: 3
Number Of Items: 1
Pages: 752
Shipping Weight (lbs): 3.9
Dimensions (in): 9.9 x 7.6 x 1.9
ISBN: 0470512849
Dewey Decimal Number: 658.40352
EAN: 9780470512845
ASIN: 0470512849
Publication Date: May 19, 2008
Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days
Shipping: International shipping available
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Product Description
Risk Analysis concerns itself with the quantification of risk, the modeling of identified risks and how to make decisions from those models. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) using Monte Carlo simulation offers a powerful and precise method for dealing with the uncertainty and variability of a problem. By providing the building blocks the author guides the reader through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most modeling problems. A wide range of solved problems is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be used together to solve otherwise complex problems.
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| Customer Reviews: Read 7 more reviews...
 In depth, detailed, and July 22, 2008
This book is not for the faint of heart - you should know statistics and have a very solid math background before you attempt to crack open the cover. While primarily focused on risk analysis within the finance and insurance industries, the principles outlined within can be carried across to other fields such as high-tech fraud. The probability calculations, Monte Carlo simulations, and other means of determining likelihood of an event occurring are all covered and will confuse the novice. Containing a slight bias towards Vose consulting services (where the author obviously hails), this book also points out what above-average risk consultation services should do for you, as well as what you, as a hiring manager, should expect.
All in all, I find this to be a great resource, and look forward to sharing the book with others in my department that are mathematicians and can truly appreciate the content.
Risk Analysis May 24, 2006
A very good book, but a bit too much mathematical detail in deriving formulas for probability distributions; could use better descriptions of when to use each probability distribution.
Best Book for Quantitative Risk Analysis April 25, 2004
4 out of 5 found this review helpful
I believe that this book is the best of many Risk Analysis books. The book's structure, starting from fundamental topics and guiding to advanced topics, is excellent. So, I translated this book into Japanese! You will make the best use of the book with Excel add-in Monte Carlo simulation software like @Risk and Crystal ball that you can get its trial version from the vendor's site(free!). But, the value of this book is not decreased with its sophistitated notation even if you don't have such software. You can enjoy the logic of Quantitative Risk Analysis. Now, the author is preparing his original software. I hope it will be as valuable as this book.
 1st edition more useful to a practitioner than the 2nd October 18, 2003
3 out of 5 found this review helpful
Unlike in the first edition, the author seems to have tried his best to eliminate any reference to any simulation software in the second edition. Result: it now reads like any academic simulation text, only less. The first edition wasn't broke. Why fix it? Bring back the classic Vose!
Rigouros, clear and practical April 20, 2003
3 out of 3 found this review helpful
This book gives a deep insight into the state of the art and recent developments of quantitative risk analysis using simulation methods. Describes topics such as second order risk analysis I never heard about before. I used the knowledge drawn from this book to write some technical papers (published on peer-reviewed journals and seminars proceedings). Specialized software, such as @-risk and crystal ball is not strictly needed to carry out the risk-analysis systems suggested by the author (but pretty advanced skills with excel or use of math softwares are required). The specific subject of the book is risk modelling by Monte Carlo Simulation and Bayesan analysis; it does not deal with fuzzy models or other uncertainty-propagation methods. I highly reccomend this book to anyone interested into the specific subject.
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